Published on August 18, 2017 @ 7:04am
Good Friday everyone. Hopefully, you've all positioned yourself accordingly following yesterday's massive market meltdown. We saw it coming. We suggested some bearish index ETF's, and we've continued to communicate the strategy of moving stop losses up in an effort to protect gains in profitable ideas.
There's no question everything got smacked yesterday, and although most names out there took a pretty good hit, we actually think what's taking place right now is going to end up being pretty healthy in the long run. So if you're a buy and hold investor - and you're sticking with quality names - there's going to be an opportunity to averaged down or re-enter into select fundamentally sound names once the markets do decide to settle.
This is precisely why we haven't pulled the plug on many of our open ideas here. Our service puts you first, so rather than run for the hills and close out names we're either up or down in, we want to leaves these names open in an effort to give all of you out there an opportunity to pick up stocks we think will still perform well over the next several months - once the markets finally decide to settle of course.
The good news is there are going to be some tremendous buying opportunities once the markets have achieved attractive levels again. The big question many investors and traders have right now though is when? We've continued to reference the 5,900 level on the NASDAQ Composite for several weeks now - and based on what happened yesterday, that's still the level we'll be eyeing.
Can the markets reverse themselves back to the upside at any point between now and then? Sure, however, we've got plenty of technical context right now to suggest a move to just below the 6,000 on the NASDAQ. The chart below shows you that level, but be rest assured there are plenty of technical reasons for us to believe that's where we're headed.
If you're looking for levels to potentially cover those open bearish index ETF's, we could see a relief rally around 6,200, which we've pointed to here. The square area is where the NASDAQ could end up developing a long-term bottom - with the most opportunistic level being a break just below 6,000 - which we've also pointed to here.
Although the financial media loves to come up with all kinds of rhetoric for why the markets have done what they've done recently, the reality is much of the recent markets' behavior has been strictly technical. As a matter of fact, there was something glaringly negative that surfaced on the DOW's daily chart just yesterday.
Basically, the DOW confirmed a technical sell signal by moving below its 3X3 DMA (blue line) and closing for the second time in six days. See the close below six days ago, then the close back above and then the close below again yesterday? That's often a very big sign of a changing trend, and that's why traders - including us - jumped all over the short side of the markets yesterday.
We have been pointing to this big possibility for several days now - with the NASDAQ having been the leading indicator - so now it's time to start paying close attention for any sort of significant reversal. However, we don't see any substantial reversal back to the upside looming just yet.
As a matter of fact, the volume yesterday was pretty anemic, so until we get some sort of capitulatory move to the downside on extremely high volume, we do think these markets could be headed much lower. And once they do, it will be at that point we'll assess a potential bottom - and an opportunity to identify a tradable move back to the upside.
Our oil short is doing just fine, while gold is obviously seeing some strength, hence our bearish exit in the precious metal. We're still convinced the dollar is in the process of reversing itself higher soon, so we'll stick with our recently suggested oil short until the commodity achieves lower levels. We also want to point out the price of oil also breached another key displaced moving average yesterday, so that should help push oil lower over the next several days.
At this point, if you haven't already entered into some bearish leveraged index and/or oil ETF's, now's not the time to be chasing anything lower - as the key to trading anything on a short-term basis is giving yourself an low risk high reward entry level. In other words, if you didn't get short in recent days, the risk to do so now has already gone way up.
Individual Company Idea Updates:
Either stay the course, or wait for lower levels ahead before considering averaging down or re-entering into any of our open ideas, or other quality names you might be considering.
Actions To Consider Today:
Hold SQQQ and/or SPXU - just make sure to trail your gains with a mental stop in an effort to protect profits there.
Hold SCO - while also continuing to trail your gains with a mental stop there as well.
If you have any questions or would like further details regarding any of the information provided above, please call your Rep - 619-369-9316.