Published on September 11, 2017 @ 7:22am
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of those affected by the recent hurricanes throughout the South, as well as those remembered from 9/11. It's one thing to observe from afar, but it's another to have been there. If there's one thing we all know about the American people though, it's the unwavering resilience to deal with crisis - it's what makes a true American.
Speaking of resilience, the markets have gapped sharply higher to kick off the new week and it could be the first sign of another strong rotation higher. We'll still need to see a close above 22,000 on the DOW, but based on what we're already seeing this morning, we could get that technical confirmation as soon as today's close. We'll just have to see what happens.
With the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 only double digits away from new all-time highs now, one has to think these markets could end the month of September on a high note. If we can get that, we have some technical context for a move on the NASDAQ to just under 6,700 before the Index could potentially run into some resistance again - as 6,672 represents a very key long-term expansion level on this monthly chart of the NASDAQ Composite.
The bottom line is with financials and tech leading the charge to the upside today, we're giving new highs across the major indices a very high probability right now.
Until a point whereby the VIX (Volatility Index) achieves its multi-year low of just under 9 - a level achieved only twice in the last 10 years - we're still not all that concerned about the markets' inability to move to move higher. As a matter of strong opinion, based on the way the markets continue to behave, it's entirely possible the VIX could end up putting in a new historical low of below 8 before these markets "might" be in a position to stage a dramatic reversal.
Even then, there's no guarantee of a major market selloff until the monthly bars on the charts of the major indices start getting much longer in the tooth.
Oil reversed its recent strength over the last few days - something we mentioned a strong possibility of just a few days ago. Now, we'll need to see a break below its August low of roughly $46.40 if the price of crude is going to be in position to work its way even lower. We still maintain a long-term target on oil of just below $40 per barrel.
Gold has backed off, which should come as no surprise considering its recent strength over the last several weeks, however, we're still eyeing a move on the primary ETF tracking gold in GLD to roughly $133 before it too could be in position to start backing off again.
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