Client Newsletter Example: A Macro Technical Look at the Most Important Financial Instruments to Equity Markets - Oil, Major Indexes, Cryptos, Metals, and Treasury Yields

Published on March 24, 2026 @ 10:51am

Major indexes took a bit of an intraday breather yesterday after gapping sharply higher on the open. This morning, they're fairly tame for the time being. Oil is doing the same. Here are the details on all of it, along with what we're seeing in oil, and the weekly charts of the major indexes, cryptos, metals, and Treasury yields:

A Macro Technical Look at the Most Important Financial Instruments to Equity Markets - Oil, Major Indexes, Cryptos, Metals, and Treasury Yields

After an extremely sharp gap up across all of the major indexes yesterday morning, the markets ended up giving back some of their early gains and settled some by day's end. No surprise, considering the ongoing back-and-forth rhetoric and propaganda that continues to surround the U.S./Iran conflict.

In other words, there's an awful lot of news, both fake and real, coming out of media outlets all around the world over what continues to take place in the Middle East. Every country, leader, and civilian has an opinion. Depending on what comes out of each country's leadership administration right now, the markets seemingly react to what it deems to be most important. And right now, it sure seems to be far more about U.S. involvement, Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil.

With that, provided here is another updated daily chart of the price of WTI crude futures. As you can see, after a pretty rough day for the commodity yesterday, it's up some on decent volume this morning. Again, it's going to be very sensitive to news headlines. However, as long as the price of WTI stays below $96 per barrel, equity markets should be OK.

Provided here are updated weekly charts of the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY). As you can see, QQQ tested its November low on Friday and, so far, it's held. However, should tensions increase in the Middle East again, it would be no surprise to see QQQ breach that November low to the downside, and then possibly end up down around the 3/8ths retracement from its April low to its October high of last year. As for SPY, I suspect it's going to follow whatever QQQ ends up doing on a near-term basis.

Even your major cryptocurrencies, metals, and Treasury yields continue to remain hyper-volatile.

First, provided here are updated weekly charts of the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA). You can see here that despite bottoming last month, both continue to post a series of very modest higher lows and higher highs ever since, and they're doing it on what I would continue to deem fairly unconvincing volume.

Don't get me wrong, ex oil, both are clearly performing better in recent weeks than any other major financial instrument out there, but the price action and behavior of both does seem a little out of character. Meaning, neither are making the type of big moves traders and investors have become so accustomed to. Instead, they're both starting to act more like mature currencies than anything else.

This is something we're just going to have to continue to monitor, but for now, we would not be overweight either.

Gold and silver have clearly imploded since achieving new all-time highs just a few months ago. But before I get into their charts, just know that since 1990, even with the recent parabolic runs in both, gold and silver have underperformed that of the S&P 500.

If we zoom out and take a clean, long-term view since 1990, the S&P 500 has delivered right around 10% per year, driven by a combination of earnings growth, multiple expansion, and reinvested dividends. This continues to reinforce why it's been the benchmark for long-term wealth creation.

Gold has come in at approximately 5%-6% per year over that same period. It's had powerful cyclical runs--especially during periods of monetary instability--but over the full timeframe, it has functioned more as a store of value than a compounder.

Silver has lagged meaningfully, averaging roughly 3%-4% per year. While it can outperform sharply in short bursts due to its higher volatility and its dual industrial/monetary role, those moves have not translated into consistent long-term compounding.

Bottom line: over multiple decades, equities (via the S&P 500) have materially outperformed both gold and silver on a per annum basis, while precious metals have primarily served as hedges rather than primary growth engines.

Provided here are updated weekly charts of GLD and SLV, the two primary ETFs tracking gold and silver, respectively. As you can see, I've pointed to the 25x5 DMAs (green curved lines) for each. On GLD, that number is at $393 right now, and on SLV, that number is $56. While that specific DMA is going to move from week to week, I can almost guarantee that when each of those DMAs ends up being achieved, the respective metal is going to trade higher. Maybe not perfectly on the number, but you get the gist.

Will they end up making new all-time highs again anytime soon? I personally do not think so, but never say never. Still, they can be tradable opportunities from time to time--one just has to be careful and use protective stops they're comfortable with.

And finally, the biggie, Treasury yields--the one instrument that's always going to play a major part when it comes to the sentiment surrounding equities at any given point in time.

Provided here is an updated weekly chart of the 10-year Treasury yield, arguably the most important yield to these markets. As you can see, ever since the U.S. got involved in the Middle East, yields have moved higher on the idea of another potential rise in inflation. However, I can almost assure you that if the conflict between the U.S. and Iran can come to an end soon, yields are going to start coming back down.

Still, equity markets can handle higher yields for the right reasons. Meaning, if yields are higher because of growth and economic acceleration, that's OK. But if they're higher because of rapid inflation that stunts economic growth, that's not a good thing.

Right now, with the 10-year paying a little over 4%, that's not bad for a pretty much risk-free asset. However, the bigger return would likely come if yields started moving lower and certain bond ETFs like TLT start moving higher.

Provided here is a weekly chart of the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). If yields started to consistently move lower, fixed income ETFs like TLT will start moving higher. Although they won't pay as much of a dividend if yields do start moving lower, they'll more than make up for the modest yield in price performance.

In other words, at the point Treasury yields start moving lower again, it will be bond ETFs like TLT that should become very attractive again. We're just not seeing enough buy-side volume right now in any of the major bond ETFs to warrant overweight exposure there yet.

For now, however, it's still all about what continues to take place over in the Middle East. All you have to do is pay attention to all of the above-mentioned instruments, as that should tell you everything you need to know today, tomorrow, next week, next month, and so on.

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John Monroe - Senior Editor and Analyst